Analysis: Why Israel recognized Somaliland as independent state

Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland — a region along the Horn of Africa — as an independent state has drawn sharp reactions, prompting diplomatic discussions across the Horn of Africa and scrutiny at the United Nations, while drawing a welcome in Somaliland. Analysts point to several strategic considerations behind Israel’s move.

In a Dec. 31 analysis for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), journalist Eric Tlozek outlined three factors that he argues have influenced Israel’s decision: countering the Houthis in Yemen, speculation over Gaza relocation proposals, and countering Turkey’s influence in Africa.

The recognition, announced Dec. 26 through a joint declaration, made Israel the first UN member state to formally recognize Somaliland and opened the door to diplomatic ties and cooperation in areas including security, agriculture, and technology, Reuters reported. In a video statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Somaliland’s leadership and highlighted the potential for cooperation on governance and strategic interests. 

According to AP News, Israel’s move sparked public backlash in Somalia, where protestors in multiple cities condemned the recognition as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The outlet added that more than 20 countries have condemned the recognition.

Somaliland, a former British protectorate, declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after the country’s civil war. It has since functioned as a de facto state with its own government, currency, and military, but has never previously secured international recognition.

Building a foothold near the Houthis

Tolzek reported that analysts agree Israel’s primary motivation is security, specifically countering the Houthis in Yemen, who have launched missiles toward Israel and attacked shipping in the Red Sea since Oct. 7, 2023. 

Somaliland lies directly across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen. 

“If you want to get closer to the Houthis, if you want to have more presence on the Red Sea, you’ve got to work with Somaliland,” Asher Lubotzky, a senior research fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, said, according to ABC. “They’re almost the best ally you can ask for.”

Lubotzky said Israel has a history of cultivating partners close to adversaries, pointing to its relationship with Azerbaijan, which is near Iran.

“So Israel knew how to get really close to Iran when they needed to, versus the Houthis, where there was nothing,” he said, according to ABC. 

Tlozek reported that Israel’s Gulf ally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), already maintains a military base in Somaliland, and a UAE-linked company operates the port at Berbera.

Gazan refugees relocation theory

The recognition has also revived debate over reports that Somaliland was approached earlier this year about accepting Palestinians displaced from Gaza under a proposal sometimes dubbed the “Trump Riviera Plan.”

That idea, which involved the mass relocation of Gazans, was “quietly shelved by the White House after broad international condemnation and allegations of ethnic cleansing,” Tlozek reported.

While Somaliland initially did not rule out such a move, officials said diplomatic recognition would be a prerequisite, according to Tlozek. After Israel announced Somaliland’s recognition, Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adam denied any agreement.

“Somaliland has neither discussed nor agreed to host or receive people from the Gaza Strip on its territory,” he told Israel’s public broadcaster KAN, Tlozek reported.

Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told ABC he had heard accounts suggesting Somaliland officials raised the possibility of accepting displaced Gazans in exchange for financial support. However, Lubotzky disputed Diker’s account, saying he is “willing to put a lot of money on assuming that this is not at all any factor,” according to ABC. 

Countering Turkey’s influence

A third factor cited in Tlozek’s report is Israel’s “chance to annoy and counter” the growing influence of Turkey in the Horn of Africa. Turkey is a close ally of Somalia’s federal government, maintains a military base in Mogadishu, and has announced plans for energy exploration off the Somali coast.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as “illegal and unacceptable,” according to ABC.

However, Lubotzky argued that Turkey’s activities in the region were likely a second consideration: “Israel did not do that because of Turkey.” 

“This is something that people are worried about, but this is not the first priority,” Lubotzky said, according to ABC. “And in Israel you work only by first priorities.”

With international reactions still unfolding, President Donald Trump said Dec. 26 that the U.S. would not immediately follow Israel’s lead. He told the New York Post he needed time to “study” the decision.